Future and Popularity of the Spanish Monarchy

[Dalriada]

A week on and thank God we now see mass protest against Catalonia independence in Barcelona.

One week on, and we now see the result of the onslaught of unrelenting state propaganda on Spanish state radio and television (rTVE) urging the ethnic Castilians and Andalusians to plea for unity and “dialogue” which their king failed to do.

 

[ANNIE_S]

What is an "ethnic Castiliand and /or ethnic Andalusian"?

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

One week on, and we now see the result of the onslaught of unrelenting state propaganda on Spanish state radio and television (rTVE) urging the ethnic Castilians and Andalusians to plea for unity and “dialogue” which their king failed to do.

You seem to miss that the King has zero point zero bandwith for an own policy. The King stays meticulously within the limitations of the Constitution and that is exactly what he did request the secessionist politicians: return to the rule of law, return to the principles of the Constitution and return to loyalty towards the nation. That is the message of the Government and the King is no more than the extension of the Government. If you don't like that, you better advocate for a form of Republic in which the head of state has an own mandate and can speak out his own mind, like for example a Donald Trump can.

There are 47 million Spaniards, of which more than 7 million are Catalan, of which more than 5 million are eligible to vote and of which roughly 2 million have voted for separatist parties. The King can not accept that on base of two million separatists the rights of all Catalans are destroyed and bring the whole of Spain and the other 45 million Spaniards in jeopardy.

 

[lula]

Today's demonstration was not exactly about dialogue, but to tell the Catalan government to return to good sense because there are many Catalans who do not support independence, who want to be Spanish and European. And to tell the Catalans that also feel Spanish, that they are not alone, that there are many Spaniards who support them. The speeches were very hard against the Catalan government.

Indeed, today's demonstration was in line with King Felipe's speech, and among the demonstrators were banners and shouts of "¡Viva el Rey¡". The speech of the King was the incentive for many Spaniards and Catalans to take a step forward.

Duke, there had probably been a time when it was necessary to break something, to be able to repair it. The independentists are in a desperate race forward, and the rest of Catalonia and Spain had to say "enough" at some point. There will be no absolute winners, but at least there are people who were fearful and who at last feel free to express themselves.

 

[moby]

In the middle of Barcelona today at the rally and it was a beautiful sight to behold with the Soanish and EU flags out and about. A proud day for Spaniards indeed. I agree with what has been said, I do believe the King’s speech was reassuring to the majority who did not want Cataluña’s independence. Now we see what happens when Puigdemont speaks soon but I think his lot has lost momentum.

And I don’t know about “ethnic Castillians and Andalusians” but lots of old granny and gramps Catalans at the march today!

 

[Duc_et_Pair]

For decades there has been a massive influx in Catalonia. People from the Extremadura, from Andalucía, from the Baleares, from Castilla, etc. moved to Barcelona for work, for family, for love, for study and they are citizens of Catalonia, for decades. They mixed with the "ethnic Catalonians". So many of the demonstrators yesterday told "I am from Málaga but I live in Barcelona for 50 years" or "I come from León but my wife is from Girona and my children are born here in Barcelona". I think that the "real Catalonians" are far in the minority in their own Catalonia. Not to mention the massive foreign population (which is not eligible to vote).

 

[Rudolph]

France will not recognise Catalonia if its government unilaterally declares independence from Spain, European affairs minister Nathalie Loiseau warned on Monday, as nerves grew over a likely proclamation in the coming days.

"If there were to be a declaration of independence, it would be unilateral, and it would not be recognised," Ms Loiseau said on CNews television, calling for dialogue to resolve the crisis.

Read more:France says it would not recognise Catalan independence declaration*

 

[Marengo]

The Catalan leader Carles Puigdemont did not declare outright independence today. Instead he said that:

he would act on what he called a popular mandate to declare independence from Spain but first wanted dialogue with Madrid to ensure it is a peaceful process.

Read more here: Catalan leader declares independence but puts it on hold – POLITICO

 

[wyevale]

Puigdemont has satisfied NO-ONE in this speech, not Spain, not the [communist] CUP, who want independence NOW, and who are his coalition partners in the regional govt, and not the secessionist 'on the Street'...

 

[lula]

I do not think anyone is really surprised ... this is a circus for a long time.

They are following their manual, which today the press has published because it was seized by the Civil Guard.

Now they try to put pressure on the Spanish government with the excuse of dialogue and mediation, when they want to buy time. With half of the Catalans, the economy and Europe against, they were not going anywhere.

But regardless of politics, justice will continue its course and the promoters of this have a dark future.

 

[MARG]

The history of the last Century of the Spanish Monarchy dictates exactly what part they play "politically". King Felipe really had no choice but to address the situation in Catalonia however, I wish he could have come across as a little more of a sympathetic, inclusive King of a Spain that includes Catalonia but he did not.

When it comes to the politics of secession, the government will dictate what will be said and Filepe does not come across as a sympathetic figure needing to remind Catalonia that they too are Spain.

Financially Catalonia is already feeling the financial pinch and with tourism down due to the fear of political unrest turning into outright violence, the economy is going to be very depressed.

There are many still alive that remember the Spain under Franco, not least the Spanish Royal Family and I do not believe they want this situation to spiral out of control. That would not be in the interests of Spain nor the Monarchy.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

The history of the last Century of the Spanish Monarchy dictates exactly what part they play "politically". King Felipe really had no choice but to address the situation in Catalonia however, I wish he could have come across as a little more of a sympathetic, inclusive King of a Spain that includes Catalonia but he did not.

When it comes to the politics of secession, the government will dictate what will be said and Filepe does not come across as a sympathetic figure needing to remind Catalonia that they too are Spain.

Felipe seems to lack a bit the human touch that has always been attributed to his father Juan Carlos.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

I guess the ambiguity is intentional, Puigdemont attempting to free himself from the whatever he has maneuvered himself into, with Madrid threatening to evoke §155, many companies moving to other regions in Spain and his own party at odds. At the same time, he depends on radical CUP and has to offer them and the indepence radicals on the streets stomething as well. An official statement of independence would have had fatal economic consequences and was therefore out of the question so the solution is to say independence yes but not now, like being 'a little bit pregnant'.

How Madrid will react we will probably see this afternoon, after Rajoy has met with his cabinet and will then address parliament. Puigdemont was clever enough to play the ball back to Rajoy, dramatically calling for dialogue again, a proven strategy, he stressed that the Catalan independency supporters are civilized and peaceful, not criminals or putschists.

Evoking §155 and putting Catalonia under military control, arresting those in charge of the referendum would be seen as a very drastic measure now with Puigdemont backing a little bit off.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...h-provides-no-clarity-on-catalan-independence

 

[lula]

Nobody, except the Government, really knows how 155 can be developed, because it has never been done. It's a new topic they use as an excuse.

Regardless of the Government, justice continues to function, and the organizers of this still have to face several complaints.

The economic situation in Catalonia is going to be worse, because there is now more uncertainty.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

https://www.thelocal.es/20171011/sp...rnment-to-clarify-if-it-declared-independence

Rajoy wants Catalonia to clarify on their status, basically a tentative step towards evoking §155 and taking administrative control of the region.

 

[wyevale]

It is hardly a surprise clarification is needed , this is the OFFICIAL translation of the critical passage of the speech, and it's 'as clear as mud'...

 

[Moonmaiden23]

Felipe seems to lack a bit the human touch that has always been attributed to his father Juan Carlos.

Not sure about his "human touch" but he(Felipe) certainly seems to lack Juan Carlos's famous charisma and charm. For all of JC's well-documented faults he knew how to connect with people high and low...he knew how to "king".

Unfortunately for Juan Carlos, he was also an aristocrat from a different era and despite his talents, his human foibles could not be tolerated in this day.

 

[camelot23ca]

Not sure about his "human touch" but he(Felipe) certainly seems to lack Juan Carlos's famous charisma and charm. For all of JC's well-documented faults he knew how to connect with people high and low...he knew how to "king".

Unfortunately for Juan Carlos, he was also an aristocrat from a different era and despite his talents, his human foibles could not be tolerated in this day.

I think Juan Carlos is a genuinely talented man in many ways. Flawed, yes, but certainly charismatic and able to read people and connect with them very well. It's not hard to see him having been a high level politician or CEO or something of that sort under different circumstances. He was also lucky, though, in that his natural abilities matched up well with the times and events during the early and mid parts of his reign. Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Felipe seems to have a very different style and personality compared to his father. Less flawed, yes - at least that we know of so far - but also less human and sympathetic, IMO. Part of this may be because he knows he has very little leeway with the Spanish government. There's no conceivable government formation which would be in favour of giving him the chance to amass the influence and genuine power that JC had, even if Felipe had the natural abilities to do so. I think Felipe has always known this and has been willing, even eager, to demonstrate to the Spanish political class that, to be blunt, he knows his place. The speech he gave last week was the most high profile chance he's had to demonstrate his understanding of what the Spanish monarchy is post - Juan Carlos, and that may be why he decided not to take advantage of the very small amount of wiggle room he had to add a personal touch and instead stick 100% to an almost word for word recitation of the government's position.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/12/catalonia-has-8-days-to-drop-independence.html
https://euobserver.com/beyond-brussels/139405

Spain has given the Catalan leadership eight days to drop its bid for independence or else face losing its political autonomy by evoking §155 (until Monday Oct 16).
Mariano Rajoy could suspend the region's autonomy and call fresh elections.
Rajoy did open up to a possible reform of the constitution dated 1978.

 

[highpriestess]

An excellent analysis of the situation by a former Israeli foreign minister:

Why Catalonia’s Independence Bid Is Failing


https://www.project-syndicate.org/c...ndependence-failure-by-shlomo-ben-ami-2017-10

 

[moby]

highpriestess, thank you for the article! The writer articulated well what I've long observed in the Catalonian situation--that they seem to have an overblown sense of their importance and that it is hard to find a secessionist group that succeeded without violence and sacrifice involved. Plus it is fascinating that he made a fair comment about Palestine when he used to be the Israeli FM, such a great article.

 

[highpriestess]

You're welcome. Lots of interesting articles in La Vanguardia today. Here is one columnist's comment about Felipe's speech. He opined that Felipe's speech curtailed international support for Catalonia.

"The United States has finally made a definite statement. The note from Secretary of State Rex Tillersonel October 12 clears any ambiguity. Canada's Justine Trudeau has also ruled. The president of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nietohas said that he would never recognize an independent Catalonia. The King's speech had its flaws, but it has had its effects. There are no relevant international supports. There are no firm mediation offers. All that is left is the intoxications of the powerful Kremlin-funded Russia Today (RT) propaganda channel and officially classified in Moscow as a strategic Russian state structure. Catalonia is becoming ammunition for the destabilization maneuvers of the European Union. Was Vladimir Putinthe secret hope of the strategists of sovereignty? Hard to believe, since their contacts were going in another direction. Someone has been wrong on the invisible committee of sovereignty. Someone has miscalculated possible supports. Maybe someone has cheated them. Secretary of State Tillerson's note is conclusive."

Atrapados en el estadio

Reports on the National Day said that many guests/reporters congratulated Felipe for his speech. The number of guests at this year's reception was a record 1500 because more people wanted to show support for the crown. Those guests include many prominent businessmen from Catalonia.

According to another article, almost 600 companies have fled Catalonia in just 10 days.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Puigdemont continues his strategy to stall ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...s-catalan-claim-to-independence-defying-spain

In a letter to Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, Puigdemont called for dialogue and a face-to-face meeting as soon as possible as he again claimed his government’s mandate to declare a republic. The reply was not the clear yes or no reply that Rajoy had demanded by 10 a.m. on Monday to clarify whether he had in fact declared independence in a speech to the Catalan parliament last week.

Now Rajoy has the choice to agree to dialogue or to remain firm and start the process of taking away the autonomous status or he decides to play ping pong and sets another ultimatum.

 

[M. Payton]

I am just reading this thread as I do not have much to offer in the way of knowing much about what is going on for I like learning and this is what I am currently doing here, yet this comment hit home with me and my gov about leaders playing ping pong with the laws of the country and how they make decisions.......I sincerely hope the PM of Spain stands firm in his decision of 10am today......a former president of this country played the game of ping pong with Syria and lost......so I hope this does not happen in Spain, we need strong leaders with conviction and intelligence to govern our countries in this day and age of terror and unknown happenings.

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Catalan president Carles Puigdemont ignores Madrid's ultimatum
Puigdemont refuses to clarify whether he has actually declared independence and reiterates his call for talks

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-carles-puigdemont-ignores-madrids-ultimatum

If this escalates, bad timing for the King who has one of his most important event this week, the PoA Awards.

 

[wyevale]

I read yesterday of the Catalan separatists plans for Civil insurrection [basically it's supporters blockading and occupying the Ports, Airports, transport hubs, Media outlets, energy suppliers, Government Buildings and other key locations]. They plan to paralyse the province and FORCE Central Govt to capitulate or forcibly remove civilian protesters [and garner the Worlds approbrium AGAIN].
What isn't clear is precisely when this action is planned for.. perhaps Spanish members may have a better idea.
The article on civil insurrection was in Catalan, and I don't have the ability to translate it, for which I apologise

 

[Mbruno]

I read yesterday of the Catalan separatists plans for Civil insurrection [basically it's supporters blockading and occupying the Ports, Airports, transport hubs, Media outlets, energy suppliers, Government Buildings and other key locations]. They plan to paralyse the province and FORCE Central Govt to capitulate or forcibly remove civilian protesters [and garner the Worlds approbrium AGAIN].
What isn't clear is precisely when this action is planned for.. perhaps Spanish members may have a better idea.
The article on civil insurrection was in Catalan, and I don't have the ability to translate it, for which I apologise

You can use Google Translator to get a rough translation. Normally it is not very good, meaning iit will be full of grammar mistakes and wrongly translated words or expressions, but at least you should be to get the general meaning in the text.

 

[wyevale]

I did exactly that with the article in Catalan, and 'got the jist of it'. If I can find it again, i'll post the translation here..

 

[Duke of Marmalade]

Catalonia leader Puigdemont 'unclear' on independence – Spain - BBC News

the ping pong continues for now, Madrid gives Catalonia until Thursday to back away from secession.

 

[PetticoatLane]

The lack of leadership on the part of all involved is utterly embarrassing and shameful.

I include in this list the king, whose odd hectoring and schoolmasterish style in telling the Catalans off helped not one iota, and of course the European Union. We have been told time and time again that the whole point of the EU is to ensure this kind of thing doesn't happen. Its record so far on this question is stunning in its utter ineptitude.