Anna Anderson's claim to be Grand Duchess Anastasia

[Elspeth]

Originally Posted by ChatNoir

Rudnev was not involved in the Anderson case, he was just called in to try saving her life from tuberculosis.
From Anastasia, the Riddle of Anna Anderson:
Following a detailed report of her physical condition Rudnev remarked, "On the right foot I noted a severe deformity, apparently congenital in nature, in that the the big toe bends right in over the middle, forming a bunion."
Although the condition is not unusual,, in this case the malady was so pronounced that it could only have been present from birth.

Yes, but what I'm looking for is a description of this condition, completely independent of Anna Anderson, which states that severe cases must be congenital. I haven't come across this in any of the descriptions of hallux valgus on websites like MedLine, Mayo Clinic, or the American Podiatric Medical Association.

A doctor who was brought in to treat tuberculosis may very well not be an expert on abnormalities of the feet. Plus, "apparently congenital" leaves room for doubt in a way that "could only have been present from birth" doesn't, which means that this statement is somewhat contradictory.

I did find these, for what it's worth, and they seem to be saying that there's some correlation between severity and early onset, but not that the correlation is all that great or that "early onset" involves "at birth"; instead, it seems as though the age of 10 or 11 seems to be significant.

Correlation between hallux valgus angle and age.

Turan I
J Foot Surg ; 29:327-9.

Abstract
A study was made of the relationship between the hallux valgus angle and age. Between January 1983 and June 1985, 464 hallux valgus operations were performed on 404 patients at the Department of Orthopedic Surgery at Huddinge Hospital. The mean age of the patients was 54 +/- 12 years (range 16 to 75). The patients were divided into six groups with regard to nature and extent of radiographic changes. Linear regression analysis was used for analysis of the correlation between age and hallux valgus angle. A significant correlation was found in group 1: hallux valgus grade 1, type I (great toe rotated, slight bunion) and group 6: hallux valgus grade 2, type III (great toe rotated, severe bunion and severe arthrosis). There was a large scatter around the lines, however, which means that age is poor predictor of the hallux valgus angle.



Hallux valgus: demographics, etiology, and radiographic assessment.

Foot Ankle Int. 2007 Jul;28(7):759-77.

Coughlin MJ, Jones CP.
Idaho Foot and Ankle Fellowship Program, Foot and Ankle Orthopaedic Surgery, Boise, ID 83706, USA. FOOTMD@aol.com

BACKGROUND: The purpose of the study was to preoperatively evaluate the demographics, etiology, and radiographic findings associated with moderate and severe hallux valgus deformities in adult patients (over 20 years of age) treated operatively over a 33-month period in a single surgeon's practice. METHODS: Patients treated for a hallux valgus deformity between September, 1999, and May, 2002, were identified. Patients who had mild deformities (hallux valgus angle < 20 degrees), concurrent degenerative arthritis of the first metatarsophalangeal joint, inflammatory arthritis, recurrent deformities, or congruent deformities were excluded. When enrolled, all patients filled out a standardized questionnaire and had a routine examination that included standard radiographs, range of motion testing, and first ray mobility measurement. A chart review and evaluation of preoperative radiographs were completed on all eligible patients. RESULTS: One-hundred and three of 108 (96%) patients (122 feet) with a diagnosis of moderate or severe hallux valgus (hallux valgus angle of 20 degrees or more)(70) qualified for the study. The onset of the hallux valgus deformity peaked during the third decade although the distribution of occurrence was almost equal from the second through fifth decades. Twenty-eight of 122 feet (23%) developed a deformity at an age of 20 years or younger. Eighty-six (83%) of patients had a positive family history for hallux valgus deformities and 87 (84%) patients had bilateral bunions. 15% of patients in the present series had moderate or severe pes planus based on a positive Harris mat study. Only 11% (14 feet) had evidence of an Achilles or gastrocnemius tendon contracture. Radiographic analysis found that 86 of 122 feet (71%) had an oval or curved metatarsophalangeal joint. Thirty-nine feet (32%) had moderate or severe metatarsus adductus. A long first metatarsal was common in patients with hallux valgus (110 of 122 feet; 71%); the mean increased length of the first metatarsal when compared to the second was 2.4 mm. While uncommon, the incidence of an os intermetatarsum was 7% and a proximal first metatarsal facet was 7%. The mean preoperative first ray mobility as measured with Klaue's device was 7.2 mm. 16 of 22 (13%) feet were observed to have increased first ray mobility before surgery. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of the hallux valgus deformity was not associated with Achilles or gastrocnemius tendon tightness, increased first ray mobility, bilaterality or pes planus. Neither the magnitude of the preoperative angular deformity nor increasing age had any association with the magnitude of the first metatarsophalangeal joint range of motion. Constricting shoes and occupation were implicated by 35 (34%) patients as a cause of the bunions. A familial history of bunions, bilateral involvement, female gender, a long first metatarsal, and an oval or curved metatarsophalangeal joint articular surface were common findings. Increased first ray mobility and plantar gapping of the first metatarsocuneiform joint were more common in patients with hallux valgus than in the general population (when compared with historical controls).



1: Foot Ankle Int. 1995 Nov;16(11):682-97. Links

Roger A. Mann Award. Juvenile hallux valgus: etiology and treatment.

Coughlin MJ.
Division of Orthopaedics, Oregon Health Sciences University, Portland, USA.
In an 11-year retrospective study of 45 patients (60 feet) with juvenile hallux valgus, a multiprocedural approach was used to surgically correct the deformity. A Chevron osteotomy or McBride procedure was used for mild deformities, a distal soft tissue procedure with proximal first metatarsal osteotomy was used for moderate and severe deformities with MTP subluxation, and a double osteotomy (extra-articular correction) was used for moderate and severe deformities with an increased distal metatarsal articular angle (DMAA). The average hallux valgus correction was 17.2 degrees and the average correction of the 1-2 intermetatarsal angle was 5.3 degrees. Good and excellent results were obtained in 92% of cases using a multiprocedural approach. Eighty-eight percent of patients were female and 40% of deformities occurred at age 10 or younger. Early onset was characterized by increased deformity and an increased DMAA. Maternal transmission was noted in 72% of patients. An increased distal metatarsal articular angle was noted in 48% of cases. With subluxation of the first MTP joint, the average DMAA was 7.9 degrees. With a congruent joint, the average DMAA was 15.3 degrees. In patients where hallux valgus occurred at age 10 or younger, the DMAA was increased. First metatarsal length was compared with second metatarsal length. While the incidence of a long first metatarsal was similar to that in the normal population (30%), the DMAA was 15.8 degrees for a long first metatarsal and 6.0 degrees for a short first metatarsal. An increased DMAA may be the defining characteristic of juvenile hallux valgus. The success of surgical correction of a juvenile hallux valgus deformity is intimately associated with the magnitude of the DMAA. Moderate and severe pes planus occurred in 17% of cases, which was no different than the incidence in the normal population. No recurrences occurred in the presence of pes planus. Pes planus was not thought to have an affect on occurrence or recurrence of deformity. Moderate and severe metatarsus adductus was noted in 22% of cases, a rate much higher than that in the normal population. The presence of metatarsus adductus did not affect the preoperative hallux valgus angle or the average surgical correction of the hallux valgus angle. Constricting footwear was noted by only 24% of patients as playing a role in the development of juvenile hallux valgus. There were six recurrences of the deformities and eight complications (six cases of postoperative hallux varus, one case of wire breakage, and one case of undercorrection).

[Menarue]

Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska

Check out the shape of the nose, lips, chin and jaw. Even the hair part and the eyebrow arch are the same in AA and FS.



L-R FS AA AN: AA/FS have the same face, compare to Anastasia's longer rounded chin and much different lips

Chat if you place so much faith in likenesses(ignoring DNA) surely you must change your mind when you look at these three photos. Obviously two are of the same person and the other ---- well we know who the third is. I have always been convinced that FS and AA are one and the same person and this photo for me is just another confirmation.

[ChatNoir]

Originally Posted by Menarue

Chat if you place so much faith in likenesses(ignoring DNA) surely you must change your mind when you look at these three photos. Obviously two are of the same person and the other ---- well we know who the third is. I have always been convinced that FS and AA are one and the same person and this photo for me is just another confirmation.

Sorry, I cannot see the likeness between ANY of them, AA looks completely different here than on her later pictures. Even Felix said that the photos of AA did not look like his sister "everythhing was wrong, Franziska never had a mouth like that". And he should know.

[ChatNoir]

Here is Gleb Botkin's description of AA from their meeting i May, 1927:

Indeed, in spite of all the horrors she had gone through, she had change surprisingly little. She remained as small as she had been at seventeen, and had only grown very thin; in a way her slimness made her the more recognisable to me because it was only shortly before the Revolution that she became rather stout.
To be sure, her features were drawn and because it, her nose appeared even more prominent than before. Also, her upper jaw having been injured by the blow of a rifle butt, many of her teeth had to be extracted, and to hide their absence she kept compressing her lips or covering them altogether with her handkerchief. But a face so characteristic and unusual as Anastasia's could not fail to be recognised in spite of such minor changes. Her hair remained as blond, as wavy and silky as ever. But above all there were her eyes - those luminous, blue, truly bewitching eyes - unforgettable and unmistakable - which to me only two people in the whole world had possessed - Emperor Nicholas II of Russia and his youngest daughter, Grand Duchess Anastasia.

The funny thing is, that Felix did not recall the color of his sister's eyes, neither did the rest of the siblings. As for her lips, it seems that she had no teeth to bite them with.

[ChatNoir]

Elpeth, thank you for all your info on the Hallux Valgus. Since there is no way of really comparing the two, I can only say that it is very, very strange that the impostor Franziska should be so lucky in all departments, especially since brother Felix said that she had no bunions or hallux valgus on her feet. "She had pretty feet, maybe a little flat", he told Shuhricht.

[AnastasiaEvidence]

Chat if you place so much faith in likenesses(ignoring DNA) surely you must change your mind when you look at these three photos. Obviously two are of the same person and the other ---- well we know who the third is. I have always been convinced that FS and AA are one and the same person and this photo for me is just another confirmation.

I agree, FS is AA. I notice it very much in the photo they do look alike. Anastasia doesn't look anything like Anna Anderson. Her headline is defiantly different. Anastasia had bangs and curls. Her hair is different from AA, so ae her eyes, lips, and nose. Notice that AA/FS has huge lips, Anastasia has very thin lips. Her features are completely different.

[Anna was Franziska]

Originally Posted by ChatNoir

Sorry, I cannot see the likeness between ANY of them,

Chat, Menarue and Anastasia Evidence can see the obvious difference because they're looking at it objectively and realistically. I'm afraid you are in denial and in distorted rose colored glasses. I think you do know FS's picture looks exactly like AA, that's why when you try to compare them you always use the drawing of FS that looks nothing like her. You'd never compare the same pics I have, because you know they are 'identical.''

AA looks completely different here than on her later pictures.

Yes she looked a lot different in photos after Gleb brought her America, got her a makeouver and started posing her for those 'glamour shots' with the boa hiding part of her face biting in her lips. But the picture I used is from the late 20's. The earliest pics, her mugshot and the first asylum pic, look very much unlike AN because she hadn't started pretending yet. The best thing about the pic I used is that it's clear and face forward, no blurs, odd angles, shadows or props like the ones you use. It's looking reality in the face.

Even Felix said that the photos of AA did not look like his sister "everythhing was wrong, Franziska never had a mouth like that". And he should know.

Well I never heard that mouth comment! Funny though, their mouths were the same!



L-R: AA, FS's niece Waltraud S., (daughter of Felix), AA, FS's brother Felix S.

Also you can't ignore the family's reasons for denying her for their own good as well as hers, which I have discussed many times before.

[Anna was Franziska]

Originally Posted by Elspeth

On the statement "She's been suspected to be FS since the 20's, the DNA just proved it," I assume. The DNA didn't prove it; it strongly supported it, but it wasn't a DNA fingerprint.

DNA can never prove who anyone is, only who they aren't. (As you know, just saying for those who don't) That's why there's never a 100% inclusion, not even in paternity tests, but there are 100% exclusions. So if we have a match with the family of FS, who looked just like AA, disappeared in the same time frame AA appeared in the same place, and a 20's detective found them to be one in the same, as did Oxlee in 1994, what are the chances she was anyone else?

I think this was the case where they said that there was a 1 in 300 chance that the match didn't indicate relatedness; that's still a finite chance even if a fairly slim one.

This is why DaveK showed us his further research:

By DaveK

Some AA proponents assert that AA’s specific mtDNA type is very common type, therefore a match between AA and FS is just by accident. However, this argument is fundamentally flawed. If so, why don’t they just show the data of someone who has same mtDNA? There are more than dozens populaiton genetics papers that you can check very easily. They can’t, because their claim is not true.

Before showing the evidence, I have to point out that the probability 1/300 reported in Peter Gill’s study in 1995 was outdated. Gill “guessed” the number from statistical average because he didn’t find AA’s mtDNA type in database available in 1995. Therefore, any unknown mtDNA in 1995 was estimated as “1/300” temporally, even if its actual probability is 1/5000 or 1/100,000 (!).

To get more accurate estimate, I checked all mtDNA (HVI) database available to me that contained 8,902 sequences of European Caucasian including US Caucasian, British, French, German, Italian, Spanish, Polish, Russian, Hungarian, Austrian, Dutch, Norwegian, Swedish, Ashkenazic Jewish, Belgian, Icelandic, Austrian, Bulgarian, Portuguese and so on. I also checked African and Asian population just in case. Most convenient sources are major human genetics journals such as Annals of Human Genetics and American Journal of Human Genetics (especially Annals of Human Genetics vol 67 (2003), p281 was helpful). Also computerized database were used, such as NCBI GenBank, European Molecular Biology Laboratory (EMBL), and US Department of Justice FBI CODIS database.

The reason why I investigated different regions separately was to see “population structure” due to ethnic subgroup, but prevalence of Tara clan was 10 +/- 2% in all countries in Europe, which indicates there is no siginificant structure (also see Science Vol 254 p1735). I’ll discuss this issue in Question 3.

TABLE 4 (Some examples of European mtDNA (HVI) studies)
---------------------------------------------------------------------
French (total = 109)
9 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
Almost all other 93 person has a unique mtDNA (does not share mtDNA each other).
No one has AA’s mtDNA (16126C, 16266T, 16294T, 16304C)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Autstrian (total = 101)
9 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
Almost all other 80 person has a unique mtDNA (does not share mtDNA each other).
No one has AA’s mtDNA
----------------------------------------------------------------------
British (total = 100)
12 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
No one has AA’s mtDNA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Russians and Ukrainians (total = 201)
22 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
No one has AA’s mtDNA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Polish (total = 436)
67 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
No one has AA’s mtDNA
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
US Caucasians total = 323
61 person has the most common type: CRS (no mutation)
No one has AA’s mtDNA


In all regions, by far the most common mtDNA haplotype (HVI) is CRS (Cambridge Reference sequence). About 10% of population in any country (except US) has this sequence (almost same prevalence as AB blood type), i.e. about 65 million European has an exactly same mtDNA sequence (at HVI). There is no known reason why this specific type is so prevalent. It seems just stochastic genetic drift event. A friend of mine jokes this mtDNA type is related to “beauty phenotype” expressed in their daughters, but I don’t think it’s true. (By the way, this CRS sequence itself from a British woman whose identity kept secret for some reason since 1981. A rumor goes that it was a researcher’s wife’s mtDNA.)

However, this CRS mtDNA is an exception. Almost all other mtDNA type is rare, usually less than 1%. For example, I checked Tsarina’s mtDNA type 16111T/16357C. There was 0 in database of 8902 caucasians. Tsar’s mtDNA was also rare, 0 out of 8902. And Anna Anderson’s mtDNA had 1 in 8902 (1 found in Iceland study). therefore the random match probability is 1/8902 = 0.01%: about 30 times rarer than the original Peter Gill’s estimate (1/300).

So, can I conclude from this DNA evidence alone? Not so fast. I think many people confuse DNA’s random match probability, likelihood ratio, with Posterior Odds. To discuss if AA is FS, we have to discuss posterior odds.

Bayesian inference is the logical/mathematical framework to interpret the combined probability of independent event. Forensic science in both US and UK are always interepreted in a logical sturucture of Bayesian inference. In the court, forensic exprert are instructed by judge to testify only regarding to “DNA random match probability” or “likelihood ratio”, but what really concern jury is the posterior odds. Here I try to be a jury rather than a DNA expert.

O (posterior) = O (prior) * DNA likelihood ratio

Roughly speaking, if two person’s sex, age, physical feature including height, hair color, face feature, prior odds are 1:10. Considering FS has been missing at almost exactly same time at same geological area as AA appeared, even conservative odds brings this to 1:100. DNA random probability is a simply inverse of likelihood ratio in this case, so my calculation shows:

O (posterior) = 1/100 x 1/9000 = 1/900,000 (that is to say, probability that AA is FS is 99.9999%)

[ChatNoir]

Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska

Chat, Menarue and Anastasia Evidence can see the obvious difference because they're looking at it objectively and realistically. I'm afraid you are in denial and in distorted rose colored glasses. I think you do know FS's picture looks exactly like AA, that's why when you try to compare them you always use the drawing of FS that looks nothing like her. You'd never compare the same pics I have, because you know they are 'identical.''

Yes she looked a lot different in photos after Gleb brought her America, got her a makeouver and started posing her for those 'glamour shots' with the boa hiding part of her face biting in her lips. But the picture I used is from the late 20's. The earliest pics, her mugshot and the first asylum pic, look very much unlike AN because she hadn't started pretending yet. The best thing about the pic I used is that it's clear and face forward, no blurs, odd angles, shadows or props like the ones you use. It's looking reality in the face.

Well I never heard that mouth comment! Funny though, their mouths were the same!

L-R: AA, FS's niece Waltraud S., (daughter of Felix), AA, FS's brother Felix S.

Also you can't ignore the family's reasons for denying her for their own good as well as hers, which I have discussed many times before.

We have seen this ad nauseum. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing.

[Anna was Franziska]

Originally Posted by ChatNoir

We have seen this ad nauseum. It means nothing. Absolutely nothing.

I could easily say the same of everything you post.

[ChatNoir]

Originally Posted by Anna was Franziska

I could easily say the same of everything you post.

The difference between your posts and mine, is that I try to adhere to what was said and written by the people who were there when it happened, while you on many occasions make up your own stories.

[Marengo]

I would like to remind the posters in this discussion about a TRF-rule on which you agreed when you became a member of TRF:

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And another one:

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We understand that some persons here have a long history together but that does not mean that you can use this forum for a continuation of personal fights. Disagree on the topic as much as you want but please stay civil towards each other.

Regards,

TRF Administration team

[Anna was Franziska]

Originally Posted by ChatNoir

The difference between your posts and mine, is that I try to adhere to what was said and written by the people who were there when it happened, while you on many occasions make up your own stories.

I have also given you many quotes by 'people who were there' whom you have called 'liars.' In the AA story, every single thing some 'person who was there' said is not necessarily accurate. As I have tried to point out before, a person saying something in a quote on page x doesn't necessarily qualify it as a 'fact.' It may be a 'fact' that someone said it, but this doesn't always qualify what was said as a 'fact.' Your lists are repetetive, basically you keep saying the same things over and over in complete denial of all the other evidence which has been presented time and time again. When I say they mean nothing it's because they really don't now that we have the DNA results. We know that some of the people must have been lying or mistaken or remembered wrong. Some things may have been fabricated completely for her story (such as her escape story itself)

The court case was very long, and a lot was said on both sides. Every single quote from every person cannot be etched in stone as a 'fact.' We must consider the source, consider the other evidence, and most of all we have to use some logical deduction and common sense to rule out which things most likely were not true. For example the story of the man who claimed to have taken her to a house across the street. With all the evidence we have learned since, we know this didn't happen. But because it's a quote and you can put a page number to it, you may adhere to it as a 'fact' and keep presenting it as such to those seeking information on the story. This is what I mean about misleading.

Everyone in the AA case is now dead and they took their secrets to their graves. We will never know exactly who did what and their motives for doing so, therefore we will never be able to put a quote or a page x to answer every single thing. This doesn't mean we can't put two and two together and figure out what most likely happened. After all lawyers do this in court and win cases this way all the time.

The one thing we do know is that AA was not AN, so therefore there have to be other explanations for some of the things in her story. I have always hoped that we would be able to discuss it in that context without the spectre of a proven false claim continually stepping in again. It can be even more interesting to discuss them from that angle and try to figure out what happened than still clinging to the impossible notion that she may still have been AN after all.

[Anna was Franziska]

Originally Posted by ChatNoir