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  #81  
Old 06-19-2015, 06:36 AM
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Right now as this is written the PM, Helle Thorning, is at an audience with QMII, where she informs Her Majesty that the government does not have a majority in the Parliament and as such she will request her Majesty to accept the resignation of the government.
QMII will accept the resignation and the government will continue as a business ministry until a new government is ready to take over.

The PM will advise Her Majesty to call in the various party leaders for consultation at to who could be the next PM. A Queen Round (*). QMII will follow that advise.
That will take place later today.

The various party leaders will tell QMII who they believe should be the next PM, alternatively who they believe should head the negotiations about forming a new government.

QMII now have two options based on the advise she has been given.
A) If it is 100 % certain who can and will be the next PM, she appoints that person as Designated Prime Minister and request that person to form a government.
B) If it is not 100 % who can be the next PM or the likely next PM is not certain he/she can gather enough majority in the Parliament to be sure to be able to pursue a policy that is acceptable for that person, then QMII can instead appoint a Royal Investigator.
The Royal Investigator, in all likelihood Lars Løkke, will sound the other parties to see what possibilities there are for forming a new coalition government. A government that may not be based on the political alliances before the election, because the situation has changed. And that is the case today.
If the Royal Investigator is successful, he will report back to QMII to inform her that it is possible to form a new government with X as PM (usually himself). QMII will then request that person to form a new government.
However, if the Royal Investigator is not successful, he will report back to QMII and inform her that it was not possible to find a solution.
QMII will then appoint a new Royal Investigator, who may come up with a completely new and sometimes surprising constellation.

You can read more about on the DRF site (in Danish): Regeringsdannelsen - Kongehuset

I think it will be very likely that Frederik will be present today at the Queen Round. After all it is now realistic to think that the next election may happen on his watch.

(*) Queen Round is a literal translation. A more apt translation could perhaps be something like a Queen Turnabout or Queen Tour, or in modern phrasing: Party Consultations with the Queen.
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  #82  
Old 06-19-2015, 06:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
Right now as this is written the PM, Helle Thorning, is at an audience with QMII, where she informs Her Majesty that the government does not have a majority in the Parliament and as such she will request her Majesty to accept the resignation of the government.

I think it will be very likely that Frederik will be present today at the Queen Round. After all it is now realistic to think that the next election may happen on his watch.
According to Ekstra Bladet, The Crown Prince is (was) present.
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  #83  
Old 06-19-2015, 07:07 AM
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Well, it is all very interesting to see how this works in Denmark and the Queen's involvement. From a purely personal point of view, for some reason I will miss Helle Thorning-Schmidt being the Danish Primeminister.

BTW, Muhler, when you say that it is realistic to think that the next election will be on Crown Prince Frederik's watch, could you elaborate?!
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  #84  
Old 06-19-2015, 07:47 AM
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Thanks Nordic. I don't understand the difficulty of writing CP Frederik in the official also to all these audiences and so on (-;
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  #85  
Old 06-19-2015, 08:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Jacknch View Post
Well, it is all very interesting to see how this works in Denmark and the Queen's involvement. From a purely personal point of view, for some reason I will miss Helle Thorning-Schmidt being the Danish Primeminister.

BTW, Muhler, when you say that it is realistic to think that the next election will be on Crown Prince Frederik's watch, could you elaborate?!
Very simple: She's is getting older. And in four years QMII may be dead or simply no longer able to carry out her duties.
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  #86  
Old 06-19-2015, 12:27 PM
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Thanks Nordic. I don't understand the difficulty of writing CP Frederik in the official also to all these audiences and so on (-;
Agreed

thank you Muhler for all the explanations
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  #87  
Old 06-19-2015, 01:37 PM
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Very simple: She's is getting older. And in four years QMII may be dead or simply no longer able to carry out her duties.
OK, I guess the word "realistic" for me means a degree of certainty. I feel sure it is only a possibility!
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  #88  
Old 06-19-2015, 03:49 PM
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Agreed

thank you Muhler for all the explanations
You are welcome.
It is difficult to boil such a complex subject down to a few lines.

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Originally Posted by Jacknch View Post
OK, I guess the word "realistic" for me means a degree of certainty. I feel sure it is only a possibility!
I hope so.
But she is getting more frail. I wouldn't be surprised if we will see her with a walking stick/cane before the end of this year.
I also fear the visit to Greenland this year (and the Faroe Islands, had it not been postponed) will be her last big official visit. Outside the paved streets of the capital of Nuuk, the terrain must be hard on her knees and back.
The state visit to China was hard on her and seeing QMII leaning over a bannister at the Swedish wedding, that is not like her at all!
Fortunately her mind is still sharp.
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  #89  
Old 06-19-2015, 04:07 PM
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It is possible Queen Margrethe thinking abdication or no way?
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  #90  
Old 06-19-2015, 04:17 PM
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It is possible Queen Margrethe thinking abdication or no way?
No way.

Only if she was diagnosed with Alzheimer or something like that do I believe she would abdicate.

Only one Danish king has ever abdicated and that was in the 1200's and only because he was paralyzed.

Would I mind if she did abdicate? No. She has done her bit and she thoroughly deserve her retirement if she should wish for that. M&F are IMO ready to take over. - And Frederik wouldn't have to dread the day he becomes king, because that will also be the day he loses his mother.
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  #91  
Old 06-19-2015, 04:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Muhler View Post
You are welcome.
It is difficult to boil such a complex subject down to a few lines.



I hope so.
But she is getting more frail. I wouldn't be surprised if we will see her with a walking stick/cane before the end of this year.
I also fear the visit to Greenland this year (and the Faroe Islands, had it not been postponed) will be her last big official visit. Outside the paved streets of the capital of Nuuk, the terrain must be hard on her knees and back.
The state visit to China was hard on her and seeing QMII leaning over a bannister at the Swedish wedding, that is not like her at all!
Fortunately her mind is still sharp.

I believe it was you who told us once in one of these forums that Queen Margrethe II would never abdicate. Do you think she might consider abdication now that she is getting frail ?

On another note, I'm surprised to see how involved the monarchs in Belgium, Denmark and Norway are with the process of government formation. In part that has to do with the fact that all those countries use proportional representation to elect their respective parliaments, but so do the Netherlands and Sweden and the Swedish and Dutch monarchs have been both removed from negotiations to form a government (in Sweden since 1975 and in the Netherlands since 2012).
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  #92  
Old 06-19-2015, 04:45 PM
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I believe it was you who told us once in one of these forums that Queen Margrethe II would never abdicate. Do you think she might consider abdication now that she is getting frail ?

On another note, I'm surprised to see how involved the monarchs in Belgium, Denmark and Norway are with the process of government formation. In part that has to do with the fact that all those countries use proportional representation to elect their respective parliaments, but so do the Netherlands and Sweden and the Swedish and Dutch monarchs have been both removed from negotiations to form a government (in Sweden since 1975 and in the Netherlands since 2012).
I refer to the above post.
Sorry, I've seen too much politics in the last few days.
If she knows that she will gradually lose the ability to fulfill her duties, but still be expected to be alive (she can after all expect the best possible medical care) I think she would seriously consider abdicating rather than letting Frederik become Regent for a figure who will rarely be seen.
But apart from that she will remain on her post til she drops.
She has said so many times and as the devout Christian she is, I believe she feels it's up to God, not her, to decide when to bow out.

I think that very much depended on the political climate of these countries but just as much who the Monarch is.
Personally I think it's healthy for the head of state to have constitutional role. Both because it provides an additional purpose for in this case the monarchy but also because it's healthy for the politicians to know there is someone above them, someone they have to answer to, even if symbolically.
And in the case of DK it's good to have someone who in theory has a veto on the legislation.
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  #93  
Old 06-19-2015, 05:01 PM
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I agree with that . The monarch must have a constitutional role and not only a decorating role.
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  #94  
Old 06-19-2015, 05:14 PM
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Thank you, Muhler, for your explanations of the Danish political process. I am so intrigued by the fact that the campaign only lasted three weeks. Here in the US, we are being subjected to a campaign that has started 18 months before the actual election - and many. many candidates! I really think that the US should look at other countries, and learn from their examples. No system is perfect, but ours seems to get more convoluted all the time.
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  #95  
Old 06-19-2015, 05:27 PM
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Thanks Muhler for the updates. I wonder if Helle Thorning-Schmidt will move to Wales now that she's no longer Prime Minister, since her husband (Stephen Kinnock) is a Welsh MP.

I don't follow foreign politics that much so forgive me if this is an obvious question, but was Helle the first female Prime Minister in Denmark?
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  #96  
Old 06-19-2015, 05:33 PM
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My pleasure, MidwestMom

Of course there were several months prior to this where the political parties went into semi-election mode. It was like a kettle almost boiling. (In this case because time was running out for the PM to call an election as that must happen within four years after taking office.)

So when the lid goes off it's three weeks of 24/7 campaigning.

But the only one who decides when the time is right to call a general election is the PM. And the PM will always prefer to call an election when the situation is most favorable for a reelection.
So there is actually nothing to hinder the next PM from calling a general election the day after taking office, just because he feels like it and without consulting anyone. It would be political suicide but he could do it.
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  #97  
Old 06-19-2015, 05:56 PM
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Thank you, Muhler, for your explanations of the Danish political process. I am so intrigued by the fact that the campaign only lasted three weeks. Here in the US, we are being subjected to a campaign that has started 18 months before the actual election - and many. many candidates! I really think that the US should look at other countries, and learn from their examples. No system is perfect, but ours seems to get more convoluted all the time.

The difference is that, in Denmark, as in all Western constitutional monarchies (including the US neighbor Canada), the chief executive officer of the country is not directly elected by the people. Instead, the people elect a parliament (i.e. the legislature) and the political party or coalition of parties that has a majority in the parliament forms the executive government led by a prime minister. The separation between the executive and legislative branches is not as clear cut then as in the US system and, if the parliament passes a motion of no confidence in the executive government , a new snap election normally has to be called.

In countries like Britain or Canada, members of parliament are locally elected in single-member districts by simple majority, which is called in Britain the "first past the post" system and is basically the same system used to elect members of the US House of Representatives. Under that system, one single party, e.g. Labour or the Conservatives in the UK, is normally able to gain an overall majority of seats in parliament by itself and form a stable government alone. The leader of the majority party becomes the prime minister and the Queen or, in the case of Canada, the Governor General as the Queen's representative don't really get involved in the government formation process, although they still formally appoint the government .

By contrast, in countries like Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, or the Netherlands, they use a different system called "proportional representation" where , in rough terms, all parties that get a percentage of votes above a certain threshold are allocated a percentage of parliamentary seats roughly equal to their percentage of the national popular vote. As a result, there are normally several parties with parliamentary representation and none of them has a majority of seats alone. In order to form a government, they have to get together and agree on a coalition. That is where the monarch comes in as he/she may in some countries be responsible for appointing politicians to coordinate the process of coalition building.

In Sweden though and now also in the Netherlands , that role has been transferred from the monarch to the Speaker of the parliament and the king only appears in the process at its very end. In the Netherlands, the king still formally appoints the government (with the countersignature of the prime minister) and swears in the ministers. In fact, the King of the Netherlands is still technically part of the government himself. In Sweden, the king as constititutional Head of State is completely separated from the government. The letters of appointment of the government ministers are actually signed by the Speaker of the Swedish parliament, but the king still chairs the special Council of State in which the ministers are sworn in.

In countries where coaltions are usual, the leader of the largest party in the coalition (in terms of number of seats) normally becomes the prime minister although that is not necessarily always the case. For example, the current Belgian PM is an exception !
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  #98  
Old 06-19-2015, 06:24 PM
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My pleasure, MidwestMom

Of course there were several months prior to this where the political parties went into semi-election mode. It was like a kettle almost boiling. (In this case because time was running out for the PM to call an election as that must happen within four years after taking office.)

So when the lid goes off it's three weeks of 24/7 campaigning.

But the only one who decides when the time is right to call a general election is the PM. And the PM will always prefer to call an election when the situation is most favorable for a reelection.
So there is actually nothing to hinder the next PM from calling a general election the day after taking office, just because he feels like it and without consulting anyone. It would be political suicide but he could do it.
That is no longer possible in the UK though. Under new rules passed in 2011, an early election can be called now in the UK only if:

  1. Two-thirds of the members of the House of Commons pass a resolution calling for an election, or
  2. The House of Commons passes a motion of no confidence in the government and fails to pass another motion of confidence in the (same or another) government within 14 days.


Since the dissolution of parliament used to be formally a royal prerogative (although triggered by the prime minister), the new rules mean that the British monarch has now been effectively stripped of his/her power to dissolve parliament at will.


Of course, when the maximum term of a parliament expires, general elections are automatically called. In the UK, that happens every 5 years , but I believe in most other monarchies,e.g. the Netherlands, Sweden or Denmark, it must happen at least every 4 years.
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  #99  
Old 06-19-2015, 06:50 PM
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By contrast, in countries like Belgium, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, or the Netherlands, they use a different system called "proportional representation" where , in rough terms, all parties that get a percentage of votes above a certain threshold are allocated a percentage of parliamentary seats roughly equal to their percentage of the national popular vote.

In Sweden though and now also in the Netherlands , that role has been transferred from the monarch to the Speaker of the parliament
In countries where coaltions are usual, the leader of the largest party in the coalition (in terms of number of seats) normally becomes the prime minister although that is not necessarily always the case. For example, the current Belgian PM is an exception !
Excellent posts.

In DK roughly 1 % of the votes translates into 2 mandates of the 179 available.
It takes at least 20.000 votes to gain a mandate. Despite that it has happened that an independent candidate without a party has been elected.
In DK the speaker or the chairman of the Parliament is elected among the MP's and as such that person is not 100 % politically neutral as the Monarch, who does not excersize her right to vote and never has.
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  #100  
Old 06-20-2015, 09:38 AM
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Let's go through what actually did happen Friday, the day after the general election.

At 11.00 the OM, Helle Thorning went to see QMII, informing her that the government no longer has a majority in the Parliament and as such she requested QMII to accept the governments resignation.
QMII accepted and the government continues until relieved as a business ministry.
The PM also advised QMII to call a Queen Round as there is no ready formed coalition taking over as government.
QMII followed that advise and called in the leaders of the parties who now have a seat in the Parliament from 13.00. Nine parties in total.
It is now known that Frederik was present at the Queen Round, but whether he was present at the meeting with the PM is not clear to me.

At 13.00 the various party leaders started arriving at Amalienborg. The order was according to size. I.e. the party with the highest number of mandates first. That so happened to be the Social Democrats, which the PM belongs to. But as she also resigned as party chairman, it was the second chairman who went to the Queen.
It's actually a very short meeting lasting some five minutes. Here the party leader names verbally and in writing who they feel is most suited for leading the negotiations forming a new government.
The losing left wing parties (with the exception of one) all pointed to Helle Thorning, knowing perfectly well that advise will not be followed.
All the other parties pointed to Lars Løkke, the leader of the Liberals.

Then Frederik left.

QMII called for Lars Løkke and entrusted him with the task of being a Royal Investigator with the aim to see if a majority government can be formed. I.e. a government that is sure to muster 90 or more mandates.
Because the only left wing party pointing at Lars Løkke, requested he should try forming a majority government. (Preferably including them!)

- That is unlikely to happen. The vast majority of governments for many decades here in DK have been minority governments. Who in some issues have had to negotiate deals with the opposition, because their supporting parties were against it.
So at some point Lars Løkke will request an audience with Her Majesty, informing her that he is unable to see how a majority government can be formed.
Then there will be a new Queen Round, where no doubt a Royal Investigator will be tasked with exploring the possibilities for a minority government. That Royal Investigator will no doubt also be Lars Løkke. And then we can expect a new government to be in place shortly after.

So sometime next week I predict we will see the new government posing for the press outside Amalienborg.
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