Which country do you think COULD be next to abolish their monarchy?

[James VI]

Yes it is interesting to have a debate on the future of Monarchies outside of Europe, but an opinion poll on the issue would be almost as silly as the poll on the fate of European Monarchies, which already exists. To date, two countries on this list have conducted genuine polls, ie referendums, on their constituitional status, Australia and Tuvalu, and in both cases republican status was flatly rejected. Beyond Bahrain, i think it would be safe to say that the Commonwealth nations are the most likely to move away from Monarchy, cutting links with the British Crown is often couched in terms of national identity and independence, with Queen Elizabeth portayed as a " foreign " Head of State. But even here, the debate is confused, republican objectives contradictory, and beyond those on the left, there is little political appetite for change.

[Banchelor]

Bahrain it seems unstable country
if i remember right then Bhutan did want build up democratic country
UAE most inhabitants are immigrants

[Artemisia]

If I had to choose, I would say Bahrain, Swaziland and some of the Commonwealth realms are among the likeliest to become republic. I'm not saying they will; however, there is certainly a very visible pro-republic movements in those countries.

The non-European Monarchy that is safest at this time appears to be Japan; I simply cannot envision the end of the Japanese Monarchy any time soon.

[James VI]

If the Swazi King is a burden on his Nation`s finances and a block on political reform, then it is for the people of Swaziland to decide his, and indeed their own, fate. The idea that " outside interests " should play any role in influencing constitutional matters or attempt to undermine traditional loyalties, strikes me as a very crude form of Western colonialism. Why should societies be forced to accept values and beliefs which are contrary to their own, or adopt a system of governance which is completely alien to them? Or are we saying that our system of governance, values, and beliefs is superior and therefor must be imposed, regardless?

[NGalitzine]

The push from ouside has more do to with foreign aid money given for one reason and then being used to support the royal lifestyle. Aid givers are taking a closer look at where their money is going so if aid is reduced or withdrawn that does impact on the Swazi people.Its not a question of imposing a western belief system its a question of watching where your money is going and if it is benefiting the people it was intended to benefit.

[Ruhije]

Originally Posted by nerminSultan

in my opinion belgium, bahrain and spain

I think the possible candidates you suggest where Monarchies could be abolished are interesting.
I wont repeat all the reasons and situation re Bahrain, as ive already made that case and my reasoning within this thread, and therefore agree with you.
Regarding Belgium, i have also posted about this in the "Which European Monarchies most likely could be Abolished" and related poll thread.
To clarify, my view is any problems and issues in Belgium are far more about the Flemish/Walloon debate, and much less an issue of Anti-Monarchist sentiment. Even in the unlikely but worst case scenario of Belgium splitting, i would still see a secure future for the Belgian Royal family in any Walloon Belgium Monarchy, just maybe without Flemish Flanders.
As for Sweden, which some others have suggested, well im far from in agreement with this suggestion and possibility. Although several Swedish political parties (all from the left) are in favour of a referendum on their Monarchy, and an opinion poll has showed mixed opinion on the subject, there is no strong or general anti-Monarchy feeling. In fact on some levels the Swedish Monarchy is very popular, and strikes a good balance between being a modern Monarchy, yet being part of Swedens traditions, heritage, and national identity among the other Scandanavian Monarchies.
And Spain, although i keep reading Prince Felipe is not as popular as King Juan Carlos, i dont see the political ingredients or popular and mass anti-Monarchy movement that high-lights Spain as a good case for near future Abolishing its Monarchy, also this point is well made by others in the other thread too "Which European Monarchy.....Abolish" and poll.

[Burzg]

Serbia

[Ruhije]

Originally Posted by Burzg

Serbia

Serbia is a Republic, NOT a Monarchy!
And anyway, the Serbian Royal family has returned to Serbia and been generally welcomed, with a palace home in Belgrade and some restitution of diplomacy and informal role for Crown Prince Alexander within Serbian society and diplomatic circles.

[madrid]

IMO, Sweden, Spain, Denmark and Belgium.

[Ruhije]

Originally Posted by madrid

IMO, Sweden, Spain, Denmark and Belgium.

Ok, but WHY?
You site no reasons for this view - Political opinion, mass popular demands for referendum, and anti-Monarchist momentum, public opinion or Monarcho-political crisis?
Just dont see this (IMO!), or why?

[Ruhije]

Originally Posted by Banchelor

Bahrain it seems unstable country
if i remember right then Bhutan did want build up democratic country
UAE most inhabitants are immigrants

Most those immigrants and Guest Workers in some UAE Monarchies and Emirates dont have the same citizenship and electoral status as the indigenous Arab UAE population, and pro/anti Monarchist public sentiment is not a big issue or in any kind of crisis situation like Bahrain.

[James VI]

Originally Posted by Ruhije

Ok, but WHY?
You site no reasons for this view - Political opinion, mass popular demands for referendum, and anti-Monarchist momentum, public opinion or Monarcho-political crisis?
Just dont see this (IMO!), or why?

Or do we perhaps imagine that Monarchies will fall for no other reason than we have become bored with them - victims of a celebrity culture?

[fandesacs2003]

Norway! I believe norwegians do not like the CP couple.
And since the Inaki case there is a risk also for Spain.

[Ruhije]

Again, Ok, but why those Monarchies?
Reply to previous page, since the posts in this thread have all been moved about recently.
What are the reasons, politics, crisis, or anti-Monarchist Movement momentum?
Agree re Bahrain, as i wrote in much more detailed post in this thread.
But Spain or Belgium, i cant see this happen, but i gave my reasons.

[Artemisia]

I suppose the Monarchy's standing in Spain has been shaken by the recent corruption scandal connected with the name of the King's son-in-law. In addition, several highly unflattering biographies on the Spanish Royal Family were published within the last few years. While King Juan Carlos continues to enjoy high esteem, mainly because of his role in upholding democracy in post-Franco era, there isn't the same kind of devotion towards the younger generation. Prince Felipe is moderately popular, but not exceptionally so. Perhaps when he does become King that will change.

As for Belgium, I cannot agree with those who think it is in danger; the Belgian Monarchy is one of the key factors that actually keep the country united. If Belgian Monarchy were to be abolished, in my opinion it would be only a matter of time till the country itself was divided into Flemish and Walloon states.

[Ruhije]

But i think even in the unlikely or worst case scenario of Belgium splitting, i would still see a secure future for the Belgian Monarchy in any possible future new independent Walloon Belgium, without Flemish Flanders in that scenario.
But i really dont think the Monarchy is in any potential crisis to lead to it being abolished.
The Crown Princely couple and young family are also very popular.
I agree with Artemisia, that the Monarchy could be one of the strongest components that actually will keep Belgium together.

[elladora]

Definitely not Morocco ( they are so popular in Morocco) Britain, the Netherlands and the UAE I think. The situation in Belgium is very exaggerated. I don't think it's going to fall any time soon. For some reason my mind goes to Jordan. They don't seem to have the support of the tribes any more or perhaps this article could share what I think. I have the same opinion as it mostly.

The Future of Jordan :: Stonegate Institute

[Ruhije]

Just to clarify that i understand your post, are you saying definitely NOT Britain, Netherlands, UAE?
If so, then i so agree with you.
And yes Morocco is interesting and i think too the Royal family is very popular, as was seen last year in anti-Government demos, but never anti-Monarchy!
Jordan could be an interesting one to watch, but again although there may be political discontent or some anti-Government feeling, i still think the Jordanian Monarchy are generally fairly popular.

[elladora]

Just to clarify that i understand your post, are you saying definitely NOT Britain, Netherlands, UAE?
If so, then i so agree with you.

Yes. The way things are going now definitely NOT UAE, Britain, the Netherlands and Morocco. The first three are obvious but as for the last one the king and his family are so popular in Morocco it's unbelievable actually.

[James VI]

Originally Posted by Ruhije

Just to clarify that i understand your post, are you saying definitely NOT Britain, Netherlands, UAE?
If so, then i so agree with you.
And yes Morocco is interesting and i think too the Royal family is very popular, as was seen last year in anti-Government demos, but never anti-Monarchy!
Jordan could be an interesting one to watch, but again although there may be political discontent or some anti-Government feeling, i still think the Jordanian Monarchy are generally fairly popular.

I completely agree with your point on Jordan, Ruhije. The contrast between the relatively stable Hashemite Kingdom and it`s neighbour, Syria, could not be more opposite.